The South Australian economy may look far less robust early next year, at precisely the time the Labor Government heads into an election it hopes will win it a third consecutive term.
Premier Mike Rann, Treasurer Kevin Foley and Industrial Relations Minister Paul Caica all had to deal this week with the loss of 600 jobs from Australia’s last remaining tyre factory, the Japanese-owned Bridgestone plant at Salisbury.
The company announced last Friday it would close its manufacturing facility in April.
The timing could have been much worse for the Government. Adelaide’s northern suburbs are all strong Labor seats – including the Premier’s own – and the 600 people to be sacked won’t lose their livelihoods until after the March 20 election.
“Theirs not to make reply, theirs not to reason why, theirs but to do and die. Into the valley of Death rode the six hundred,” wrote Alfred Lord Tennyson.
The Government claimed not to have had any prior warning of the closure. Mr Rann said the company had given him just an hour’s notice.
“The Government was advised about this decision this afternoon, very shortly before the public announcement,” confirmed Mr Caica.
The Treasurer was scathing. “Not one mention was made that this was an imminent decision,” he complained, saying that Bridgestone’s conduct dishonoured the company.
But the Government had ample time to make a better-than-informed guess. On April 17 this year, The Independent Weekly revealed that Bridgestone was already in serious trouble because of sluggish domestic car sales.
The company, we reported, supplied manufacturers such as Holden, HSV, Kenworth and Volvo Trucks. Holden had already cut back production at its Elizabeth plant and had reduced its tyre orders.
Bridgestone announced a two-week closure to “clear its warehouses of excess stock”, and those 600 workers were forced to take annual leave.
“The economic slowdown is having an impact on consumer demand around the world and Australia is no different,” Bridgestone chairman and managing director Shawn Hara told The Independent Weekly in April.
Bridgestone Australia Ltd now refuses further comment.
The company cannot deny it’s received a vault-full of money in state and federal government assistance for 20 years, including grants under the Automotive Competitiveness Investment Scheme, but neither the Government nor the company would reveal how much was in that vault: your money, their secret.
“Disclosure could distort commercial negotiations between automotive firms,” said Federal Industry Minister Senator Kim Carr.
Mr Rann visited Bridgestone’s factory in Japan, shortly before becoming Premier.
Shadow economic development minister Martin Hamilton-Smith rued the company’s decision and warned of a continuing slide in the state’s manufacturing sector.
“These Bridgestone jobs will go overseas,” Mr Hamilton-Smith said. “Emerging economies have lower cost factors of production. They pay less wages. They don’t observe the same environmental controls.”
The State Government’s assistance package to the soon-to-be-sacked workers, which includes money to “fund work experience opportunities”, will further drain state coffers hit by the failure of Mr Foley’s proposed efficiency savings.
Auditor-General Simon O’Neill’s annual report to Parliament this month revealed that the Shared Services Scheme has a $124 million shortfall. The Health Department has, according to shadow finance spokesperson Rob Lucas, a $385 million budget blowout since 2006, and as much as $10 million will be spent compensating companies bid for a planned new prison which the Government then scrapped.
The Government already has a razor gang stropping. It’s the Sustainable Budget Commission headed by Geoff Carmody, which is preparing to slash $750 million from the Budget over the forward estimates period.
The commission won’t report until after the election.
But the Government’s woes are deeper than that. ABS figures released last month show a massive drop in the value of SA exports – down almost 10 per cent. In the same week came news that international grain prices – SA relies on foreign sales for much of its wheat and barley – have plunged by almost one-third.
Higher interest rates, expected when the Reserve Bank Board meets on Melbourne Cup day, will further shake business confidence. The ABS showed private new capital expenditure in SA fell 7.2 per cent for the 12 months from March last year, while in the rest of Australia it grew 10 per cent.
Lower local retail trade has slowed, and mid-year the decline was one-and-a-half times that of the national figure. The lower economic activity across most sectors will significantly reduce government revenues, as will the accident at BHP-Billiton’s Olympic Dam mine, which has cut production – and therefore royalties – by 80 per cent.
BHP-Billiton has yet to decide when, or whether, to commit to the mine’s expansion.
Economic forecaster Access Economics, in a report released yesterday, warned of what it called an impending slowdown.
“SA's investment pipeline is too dependent on a few small projects, particularly Olympic Dam, and not broad enough to cope if some of these projects do not proceed,” it said.
The same report predicted the state could, at some indeterminable time in some indeterminable future, become the world’s “next Saudi Arabia” because of its uranium reserves.
But tales of Saudi Arabia’s economic prowess are exaggerated. While it’s the world’s largest petroleum exporter and holds more than 20 per cent of all proven oil reserves, its GDP is only $20,500, a lowly 59th on the world scale, and real unemployment is estimated to be as high as 27 per cent.