Mr Mackerras, who has an uncanny record of correctly predicting election outcomes far in advance of polling days, names the seats most likely to fall from Labor’s grasp as Norwood, Mawson and Light, held by Vini Ciccarello, Leon Bignell and Tony Piccolo respectively.

Labor currently holds a comfortable margin in the Lower House.

It has 28 seats, the Liberals 14, the National Party one and there are four independents.

Mr Mackerras believes the Liberal Party will fall well short of victory, and that even a minority government will be out of its reach.

But he predicts the Liberals will win two non-Labor seats in addition to picking up Norwood, Mawson and Light.

“I think Karlene Maywald, the National Party member in Chaffey, will lose to the Liberals,” he said.

Ms Maywald is in the unique position of being a conservative in a Labor Cabinet.

She was appointed to the Ministry by Premier Mike Rann after the 2002 State election, when Labor needed to shore up its numbers in a tight Parliament.

“The current member for Chaffey was elected a Nationals MP, but sold her soul to Labor,” Liberal Leader Martin Hamilton-Smith noted ruefully last November.

Federally the National Party is in coalition with the Liberal Party, and in Queensland the two parties have merged to form the Liberal National Party.

Ms Maywald is facing anger of an electorate which relies heavily on irrigation.

As Minister for the River Murray she is battling perceptions that she’s been ineffective in stopping other states grab what South Australians think is our share of the water resource.

Her decision to build the Wellington Dam and flood the Lower Lakes with salt water is unpopular with River Murray campaigners, but will have little effect on her vote in Chaffey.

There, irrigators are battling to keep their permanent plantations like oranges, almonds and cherries alive.

He thinks Mitchell is likely to fall to Labor.

In Frome, Mr Mackerras believes that the newly-elected independent, Geoff Brock, will hang on despite an inevitably tough fight from the Liberal Party.

Brock won the recent by-election caused by the mid-term resignation of former Premier Rob Kerin.

Mr Mackerras blames Mr Kerin for the Liberal loss in Frome, saying Mr Kerin “behaved in a disgraceful way” by resigning.

“The Liberal Party traditionally gives life membership to former leaders,” Mr Mackerras said.

“In this case it should withhold that honour."

The Liberals are still talking confidently about their expected result in the state election.

Mr Hamilton-Smith also dismissed the recent poll on the basis of its sample size.

“The poll reckons Labor leads 57 to 42 (per cent) in the country, but in September they reckoned it was the Liberals 58 to Labor’s 42.

There’s no way you get those sort of wild swings,” said a spokesman for the Opposition leader.

The earlier poll also had a very small sample size – just 365 in total – which means the results and any interpretation of those results is almost meaningless.

But the Liberals are publicly saying that they can also win the seats of Morialta, Hartley, Newland, Frome, Adelaide and Bright, as well as those selected by Mr Mackerras.

There is some speculation that Mr Rann may abandon his current seat of Ramsay, based in Adelaide’s northwest.

The solidly Labor electorate is a long way from the Premier’s domicile; his address is in the affluent inner east.

Some observers suggest that Mr Rann might run in Norwood, where he lives.

Whether sitting member Vini Ciccarello supports this tactic is uncertain, but if it does happen then Mr Rann would end up representing the same electorate held by his former boss, Don Dunstan.